New Delhi: Top economists on Wednesday highlighted the positive impact of India’s GDP projections from global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Deloitte. They pointed out that the surge in rural consumption was not just a factor, but the primary driver of the country’s GDP growth story, instilling a sense of optimism about India’s economic future.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its India growth rate projection at 7 percent in the current fiscal year. According to Deloitte, India’s annual GDP growth was projected to be between 7 and 7.2 percent in FY 2024-2025, which was in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) prediction of the country witnessing real GDP growth at 7.2 percent for FY25.
Sanju Verma, an economist and BJP national spokesperson, told IANS that the average monthly income of rural households in India has increased by almost 58 percent over five years, as per the latest survey by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD). That was amply evident from the festival season sales numbers in rural areas.
“The purchasing power was certainly intact, and a large chunk of the festival season sales were being driven by rural and semi-urban India, once again endorsing the fact that the rural growth story in India was firing on all cylinders,” she emphasised.
It was not just the GDP growth trajectory, which, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was not just projected to be intact, but stable and promising; the moot point here was that while GDP growth was moving upwards, inflation was slated to move southwards.
The RBI forecast for FY25 in terms of CPI inflation was that retail inflation would stand at just 4.5 percent, followed by an even lower 4.3 percent in FY26.
According to the IMF, India’s headline inflation in FY25 will be just 4.4 percent and even lower, at barely 4.1 percent, in FY26.
“So every global financial institution that matters was saying that while inflation will moderate substantially for India, GDP growth trajectory will be northward-bound, which was excellent news,” Verma said.
According to the IMF, global GDP growth in CY 2024 was likely to be barely in the region of 3.2 percent, and for China, that number was 4.8 percent, while inflation in large parts of the Western world was still pretty sticky.
“Amid this backdrop, what India has managed to achieve in terms of the rural consumption story firing on all cylinders under PM Modi’s visionary leadership was no mean achievement,” concluded Verma.
