New Delhi: In J&K, the upcoming government formation could bring about positive changes. Will it be the BJP, NC-Congress, or any other party, or will the NC-Congress-PDP combination unite to steer J&K towards a brighter future? The answer will be revealed on October 8, a day of potential transformation.
The Jammu & Kashmir Assembly poll results will be keenly observed, as much is at stake for the Union Territory’s happiness quotient, which encompasses the social, emotional, and psychological well-being of its residents, in addition to peace and security.
After a 10-year gap and the first after the abrogation of Article 370, the Assembly elections mark a significant step towards maintaining the region’s happiness quotient. This gap and the abrogation have reshaped the political dynamics, with people’s participation in the democratic process serving as a clear message from J&K that they want the ballot, not the bullet.
In the previous elections, Jammu had always been keen on polling; the issues were in Kashmir, where boycott calls of Pakistan-backed separatist groups and terror threats would force voters to stay away. This has changed now. Since the abrogation of Article 370, there have been no boycott calls, and people are voting voluntarily.
The 2024 Assembly polls in three phases recorded an overall voter turnout of 63.45 per cent, a little less than the 2014 percentage of 65. Even the traditional boycott bastions like Sopore in Kashmir logged the highest turnout in Assembly polls in the last 30 years. Sopore is the place where Hurriyat Conference’s late Chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani hailed from and unleashed the boycott blackmail for almost three decades since the advent of terrorism in 1989. But, this time, Sopore also voted.
Who voted for whom and what the outcome of the counting will be is a great guessing game. But the new combination, whichever it is, that takes over the reins will greatly define the future course of the UT.
Since the abrogation of Article 370 and the reorganisation of the state, J&K has been under central rule through the Lieutenant Governor.
During this period, J&K has seen significant infrastructural development, a thriving tourism industry, and a buoyant economy. The valley has remained peaceful despite external threats, and public participation in government initiatives has increased. These achievements should instil confidence in the future of J&K.
Currently, the UT is largely peaceful, with booming tourism and other businesses. The unrest that was visible before the abrogation of Article 370 is no longer there. Stone pelting has ceased, instigators are jailed, and former pelters are now engaged in studies, business, or jobs. A few politicians still try to instigate people with calls for dialogue with Pakistan or to throw open the LoC, but they are no longer successful in creating a sensation.
J&K’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at Rs 2.63 crore in FY25, growing 7.5 percent over FY24. The GDP will likely double in the next five years, emphasising the service sector, industries, agriculture, horticulture and tourism, according to the J&K Economic Survey 2022-23. The past five years saw the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) grow 54 percent from Rs 1.60 lakh crore in 2018-19.
The tourism sector has witnessed unprecedented growth in the UT, especially in the last few years. The sector has recorded an annual average growth rate of 15.13 percent during the last three years. According to government statistics, 1,08,41,009 tourists visited the UT between January and June. In 2023, the number was 2,11,24,674; 1,88,64,332 tourists in 2022; 1,13,14,884 in 2021; and 34,70,834 tourists in 2020. Tourism and the growth in the horticulture and handicraft sectors are ever-increasing.
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With the LG rule as the benchmark for the new dispensation, the challenges are manifold. The prominent ones are maintaining peace and security, tackling Pakistan’s terror onslaughts and sinister propaganda, and maintaining the pace of development.
Restoring statehood to the UT will be the new government’s first big test. The Centre recently amended J&K’s Transaction of Business rules to enhance the LG’s powers to have the ultimate say in all matters related to police, public order, transfers, and postings. It has also okayed the nomination of five members to the Assembly.
If a non-BJP combination comes to power after the results, there is a likelihood of frequent wrangling and tension between the LG and the new government.
Here, anti-country elements will try to add fuel and create a wedge between the UT and the Centre. History has shown how these pro-separatist and Pakistan-backed elements have played foul and exploited sentiments, particularly in Kashmir. This is the real challenge for the new dispensation – maintaining peace and a sense of security and not allowing the valley to fall again into a Pakistan-sponsored trap.
The October 8 results will be a watershed moment in J&K’s recent history.
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Deepika Bhan –IANS
